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I’m not sure if John Battelle started the momentum with his “Twitter=YouTube” prognostication, but that catchphrase now sits alongside dozens of high profile blog posts hailing the arrival of the new 2.0 messiah, suggesting even a fundamental threat to Google.  So, is this just more valley wagging or something more?

twitter: much (much) more than “what am I doing now”

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It’s too easy to be dismissive of Twitter as simply an extraction of the “status update” that became the backbone of social interaction at Facebook. While the concept originated with this, it has rapidly evolved into THE place where an increasing flock of consumers AND publishers post real-time information (over 6 million users, currently).  More importantly, it’s the place where consumers congregate to consume and converse around this eclectic treasure trove of real-time information. It’s a noisy, disorganized commons, yet it feels very much the place to be.

Increasingly, you’re seeing Twitter capturing a pivotal role in content distribution, threatening to siphon the traffic position of consumer portals, newspaper websites and RSS feed readers in consumer’s news consumption habits.  Most major publishers and bloggers now immediately push content updates to Twitter as soon as the information goes live.

Might this become as impactful as to challenge Google’s dominance in Search?  Pfft, of course not.  However, as John Battelle suggests with his analogy of YouTube - it’s capturing a new dimension of consumer content consumption and participation that is drawing very real momentum.  Google doesn’t capture real-time content of any scale today, and it certainly does not feel like a conversational medium capable of engaging the consumer-consumer conversational thread.

Like YouTube, Twitter’s underlying financial model is yet to be demonstrated.  I suspect, like all conversational applications (Chat, IM, Facebook,…) ads running alongside conversations will appear as distractions, and under-perform compared to commercial search.  However, also like YouTube, Twitter’s position seems to be forming into a critical new dimension of the media landscape. Undoubtedly, the big boys are onto this, and are actively considering “taking it out” before it gets snapped up by someone else. The synthesis and leverage of the growing “conversational knowledge base” is definitely a part of the appeal of Twitter’s position.

The debate over the underlying revenue model of Twitter is driving a feeding frenzy of blogger speculation, and even triggering open competitions for the best proposal.  The founders promise it’s around the corner, and the outcome of this will be very instructive as to “where might Twitter go?”.

twitter and local media

Greg Sterling makes an interesting case for Twitter as a working example of  “social directory assistance“. Essentially, the concept is to ask a question of your followers, and receive near real-time opinions from your circle of friends.  Unlike Facebook, where your “friends” are a filtered and approved list, Twitter differentiates itself by the fact that anyone can become an interloper into your postings.  I’d guess that I probably only know 20% of the people who follow me on Twitter, versus 100% of FB friends. We are seeing very dramatic follower volumes with celebrities and celebrity VC’s. To me, extrapolating the virtues of this real time “answers from your tribe” model works “for them but not me”.  While Twitter helps you build a larger tribe, the trust factor of “near strangers” is to be questioned. Most of my followers do not live/consume in the same locale as I do, so this leverage is further limited in local value. Very few consumers have the “tribe pull” to get anything but spotty answers to many local questions in this model, I’d posit.

Bridging the gap between “friends and neighbors” you’re seeing new Twitter-like services emerge with interesting potential, such as BrightKite (the product of a couple of Local Matters’ alumni!). This expanded tribe model perhaps makes the social directory assistance model more achievable.

Twitter zealots (hey, when your blog is called MrTweet, you know it’s a fan boy thing!) point to increasing anecdotal evidence of Twitter being employed by local businesses to drive tangible growth, such as this local coffee shop story. Added participation by merchants and a growing cadre of “coupon tweet” start-ups are fueling this buzz.

I certainly am a big believer that the world of real time promotions will be reinvented in the next decade, and it will be founded on social and conversational media. However, whether this logically fits into the Twitter delivery model it a very big TBD.

ginzu steak knife or swiss army tool?

Today, the tech world is granting Twitter the birthright to a world of possibilities.  However, as succinctly pointed out by Tim O’Reilly, the simplicity of Twitter is a very key ingredient to it’s success. The bright shiny world of possibilities most commonly buckle under the real life challenges of morphing from simple products to major ecosystem players.

Perilous navigation is definitely ahead, as Twitter expands into the search dimension of real time conversations, deals with the overwhelming noise of commercial models and choking spam, and contemplates a platform role.  Wherever it ends up, it’s the deserved poster child in one of the most important dimensions of online consumer behavior.

Twitter demands careful attention and active participation.